Tanker Inter-Asset Price Spreads

In our most recent analysis, we analyze the validity of the general top down approach to time charter rate expectation in the crude and product tanker markets.

We find that while OLS and Linear regression are often cited/ used as the methodological approach, neither afford robustness and are the incorrect methodology for analysis (due to auto-regressive and time series bias being present). Instead, using a simple causality determinant and impulse-response elasticity function, we demonstrate that a positive shock (change) in VLCC rates does in fact lead to a positive and "short term sustainable" appreciation in the MR segment (cet pars).

So while we rejected our a priori assumption, this certainly lends robustness to the thought that "a rising tide does lift all boats"...

#tanker#producttanker#oil#volatility#maritime#statistics#shipping#dataanalytics

MOIC 15 Nov.pdf

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